Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

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Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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By the Numbers

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Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan)

  • 2wk: Two-week average case per 10K
  • daily7: Daily running average (7day)

Since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s, I will also be estimating:

  • 2wk20s: Two-week average cases per 10K twenties (uses age distribution from EC health)

Case fatality rate, etc:

Need to add to table - Statistics computed directly from the raw data (sourced from WI DHS), stated without interpretation nor fuzziness.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 09 2020 588 14814 4 126 155
August 10 2020 590 15225 4 116 154
August 11 2020 596 15314 4 111 155
August 12 2020 612 15463 4 109 164
August 13 2020 629 15545 4 122 167
August 14 2020 645 15803 4 128 171
August 15 2020 654 15982 4 123 169
August 16 2020 658 15981 4 117 155
August 17 2020 668 16157 4 105 161
August 18 2020 673 16375 4 99 156

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 09 2020 230 10416 0 27 38
August 10 2020 239 10475 0 31 45
August 11 2020 241 10505 0 32 43
August 12 2020 244 10621 0 35 46
August 13 2020 252 10687 0 42 49
August 14 2020 259 10776 0 47 51
August 15 2020 266 10888 0 53 57
August 16 2020 274 10968 0 56 65
August 17 2020 279 11094 0 56 69
August 18 2020 281 11157 0 54 69

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 09 2020 293 6110 3 86 177
August 10 2020 295 6122 3 67 170
August 11 2020 296 6159 3 43 163
August 12 2020 308 6207 3 53 163
August 13 2020 315 6366 3 56 108
August 14 2020 320 6584 3 56 92
August 15 2020 323 6622 3 50 70
August 16 2020 326 6624 3 50 71
August 17 2020 328 6625 3 46 69
August 18 2020 336 6703 3 45 72

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 09 2020 60554 993742 998 8446 11727
August 10 2020 61061 1001402 998 8121 11644
August 11 2020 61785 1014277 1006 7783 11606
August 12 2020 62263 1023723 1011 7339 11214
August 13 2020 63206 1035195 1018 7878 11098
August 14 2020 64227 1044613 1025 8171 11287
August 15 2020 65056 1055119 1038 8116 11054
August 16 2020 65741 1060533 1039 7962 10817
August 17 2020 66196 1066040 1039 7428 10868
August 18 2020 66830 1075397 1052 6897 10774

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

DRAFT GUIDELINES for Dr. Kraker's classes

  • If 2wk > 25 OR 2wk20s > 30, urge extreme caution.
  • If 2wk > 28 (OR 2wk20s > 40), consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH.
  • If 2wk > 28 (OR 2wd20s > 40) AND daily7 increasing, strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. Dr. Kraker will communicate with administration.
  • If 2wk > 30 (OR 2wd20s > 50) AND daily7 steady to increasing, based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable.

Cumulative

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References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 28 days, are approximately 23.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-15 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1231"